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A Personal Prediction – Seats I see changing hands

by Joe Oliver

A personal General Election prediction : Labour to be the largest party

The story goes that the weekend before the last election David Cameron and George Osborne gave up on trying to interpret the varying opinion polls and pundits’ election forecasts, and sat down together to work through a list of every seat in the UK and predict which party they thought would win each.

I’d be interested to know what their final figures were, and I even hope the list itself might be unearthed by a biographer or archivist one day so historians and real political obsessives can see where they were right and wrong.

Because I know how to party I’ve spent the twilight hours attempting a similar thing, looking through the 650 constituencies in the UK and trying to predict how they’ll vote.

One thing that goaded me into this perhaps rather obsessive task was the amount of election forecasts flying about clearly based on algorithms and formulas – calculated on a national swing based on the share of the vote opinion polls are giving parties across the country.

The Electoral Calculus website is perhaps the best known of these where political geeks can lose hours playing around with the ‘Make your own prediction’ function.

My feeling, which may or may not be born out tonight, is that the idea of a national swing won’t be much help in anticipating these results – as UK politics has become such a chaotic kaleidoscope of moving piece with several seats being closely fought between four or more parties, parties strength varying dramatically across and regions, and many MPs increasingly out-performing or under-performing their parties average based on constituents’ perception of their service.
This election could almost be seen as akin to 650 separate by-elections – so I thought it’d be interesting to see if looking at each individual seat and then tallying them up gave a different result than trying to predict the parties’ seats based on the percentage increase or decrease in their support.

I’m very much indebted to the god father of political bloggers, Iain Dale, who is the only person I’ve seen who’s such produced constituency-by-constituency predictions, as his meticulous lists of regional predictions provide both his own assessments of who’ll win each seat and the raw data of the 2010 results which is very helpful in trying to prophesise the near future.

You can see all his predictions here.

I’ve ended up with slightly different figures to Iain Dale’s election prediction.

Iain Dale gives his prediction for overall seats as:

Conservatives 276
Labour 267
SNP 54
Liberal Democrat 23
DUP 9
UKIP 5
Sinn Fein 5
Plaid Cymru 4
SDLP 3
Respect 1
Green 1
Independents 2

Whereas I got an almost exact reversal in terms of the two main parties with:

Labour 279
Conservatives 267
SNP 52
Liberal Democrat 25
DUP 9
Plaid Cymru 4
Sinn Fein 4
UKIP 3
SDLP 3
Green 1
Ulster Unionists 1
Respect 1
Independent 1

(You can see my sums at the bottom of this post)

Although I haven’t differed from ‘the Dale projection’ in the vast majority of seats, in such a tight election even a handful of changes could make a big difference.

Of course I don’t my predictions are any more likely to be accurate than anyone else’s and they should be taken with a pinch or perhaps a gritter lorry full of salt.

There are lots of canyon-sized caveats – I’ve assumed quite a large swing from the Conservatives to Labour in England, around 4%, which brings lots of Tory-held seats within striking distance of Labour. It could well be that this swing doesn’t materialise – I see that Elections Etc the site run by Professor Steve Fisher from the University of Oxford has put up a forecast this morning which works on the assumption that the polls are wrong and the Conservatives will be 3% ahead.
Peter Kellner of YouGov has also been projecting results on the assumption that the Tories will do slightly better in their final vote share than the polls are showing.

Many of my predictions are also based on Lord Ashcroft’s hugely useful polls of dozens of individual constituencies. (Perhaps next time he could poll every seat to save us the trouble of voting?)
But there’s been a lot of discussion over whether the methodology of these constituency polls is right – and whether it’s even possible to get an accurate picture of what’s happening in individual seats from polls.
Stephen Bush’s article ‘Are the Ashcroft polls wrong?’ on The New Statesman’s website sent a small shiver down my spine – if the Ashcroft polls are wrong then so are the basis of many of these predictions.

Also evidently many seats could be so close that its almost a lottery which party wins them – we could see several seats won by under a hundred votes with the votes split between five or more parties. Assuming a margin of error most of these seats are too close to call.

The biggest of caveat of all is of course the pesky voters could surprise us all.
I imagine anyone interested enough to have read down to hear probably decided how they were voting sometime around the 10th May 2010 but it’s possible in the privacy of the polling booths the electorate could deliver a complete surprise, and we can’t really second guess them until all the voters are counted.
As G.K. Chesterton warned
“Smile at us, pay us, pass us; but do not quick forget,
For we are the people of England [and Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland] that never have spoken yet.”

So these predictions are largely a bit of fun (‘Fun?’ I can hear some friends snort in disbelief..) but I’ll be interested to see how many I get right, and particularly if my overall prediction that Labour will be the largest party (and that many of the media forecasts are being much too generous in allocating the Conservatives’ seat share) is borne out tonight or whether I’m wildly wide of the mark.
**

For those interested the full list of seats I’ve predicted will change hands is here.

I’ve started by listing those where I’ve agreed with Iain Dale’s predictions.
I’ve also included a few quick notes added as I went along – apologies for their rudimentary nature. If typing could show handwriting they’d definitely be scrawled notes.
I’ve also (where I’ve had time) noted the sitting MP and their majority.

The seats I haven’t mentioned (the majority) I’m tentatively predicting will produce the same results as they did in 2010.

Conservative gains from Liberal Democrats
Cornwall
St Austell and Newquay, 1,312, Stephen Gilbert – Conservative gain from Lib Dems – Ashcroft has the Conservatives 6% ahead.

Devon
North Devon, Sir Nick Harvey, 5,821 Conservative Gain from Lib Dems – Ashcroft has the Conservatives 7% ahead.

Dorset
Mid Dorset and Poole – Annette Brooke standing down, 269, – Conservative gain from Lib Dem

Hampshire
Portsmouth South, Mike Hancock standing as an independent, 5,200 – Conservative Gain from Lib Dems (Ashcroft in Nov 2014 had Tory 30% Lib Dem 25% Labour 20% UKIP 17%)

Northumberland
Berwick-upon-Tweed, 2,690 Alan Beith standing down – Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat I may be wrong on this as the Lib Dems could hang on – Ashcroft in Sept 2014 had Tories 33 Lib Dem 30 – and the Lib Dems will try to get Labour voters to back them tactically, but I think particularly without the incumbent MP it’ll be difficult for them to hold.

Somerset
Somerset and Frome, David Heath standing down, 1,817 – Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats. Ashcroft had Tories 14% ahead in October 2014.

Taunton Deane – Jeremy Browne standing down, 3,993. – Conservative gain from Lib Dems Ashcroft poll had Tories 4% ahead in Oct 2014 – that and Jeremy Browne standing down should seal it. But there is a Labour vote to squeeze and the Lib Dems are fighting hard.

Wells, Tessa Munt, 800, – Conservative Gain from Liberal Democrats

West Midlands
Solihull – Lorely Burt, 175, – Conservative gain from Lib Dems. Ashcroft in September 2014 had Tories 9% ahead.

Wiltshire
Chippenham, Duncan Hames, 2,470 – Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats. Ashcroft in September 2014 had Tories 15% ahead.

UKIP gains from Conservatives

Essex
Clacton, Douglas Carswell, – based on the last election a UKIP gain from Conservatives

Thurrock – Jackie Doyle-Price, 92, – UKIP gain from Conservatives. This could possibly be a Labour gain or a Tory hold. Ashcroft has UKIP 35, Lab 31, Tories 30 – a complete 3-way marginal.

Labour gain from Lib Dems

Birmingham
Birmingham Yardley, John Hemming, 3,002 – Labour gain against Liberal Democrats. Ashcroft in November 2014 had Lib Dems 3% ahead so very uncertain.

Bristol
Bristol West, 11,366 Labour – Gain from Lib Dems, Stephen Williams. A huge majority to overcome but an Ashcroft poll in April had Labour 38%, Green 25%, Lib Dems 20%.
Lancashire

Burnley, 1,818 Gordon Birtwhistle – Labour gain from Lib Dems

London North West
Brent Central, 1,345 Sarah Teather standing down – Labour gain from Lib Dems

Hornsey and Wood Green, 6,875 Lynne Fetherstone – Labour gain from Lib Dems. Big majority to overcome. A Survation poll in March had Labour 1% ahead. I think with a big swing in London Labour can take this.

Manchester
Manchester Withington, 1,834 John Leech – Labour Gain from Lib Dem

Norfolk
Norwich South, 333 Simon Wright – Labour gain from Liberal Democrats

Teeside
Redcar, 5,219, Ian Swales standing down – Labour Gain from Liberal Democrats. Ashcroft in Sept 2014 had Labour 44, UKIP 23, Lib Dems 18

South Glamorgan
Cardiff Central, Jenny Willott, 4,576 – Labour gain from Liberal Democrats

Yorkshire West
Bradford East, David Ward, 365 – Labour gain from Liberal Democrats

Labour gains from Conservatives

Bedfordshire
Bedford, 1,353 Labour Gain from Conservatives, Richard Fuller

Buckinghamshire
Milton Keynes South – Labour gain from Conservatives, Iain Stewart 5,201, Ashcroft has Labour ahead by 2% in April

Cheshire
City of Chester, Labour Gain from Conservatives, 2,583 Stephen Mosley

Warrington South – Labour gain from Conservatives, 1,553 David Mowat

Weaver Vale – Labour gain from Conservatives, 991 Graham Evans

Cumbria
Carlisle – Labour gain from Conservatives, 853 John Stevenson

Derbyshire
Amber Valley, 536 Nigel Mills – Labour Gain from Conservatives

Erewash, 2,501 Jessica Lee standing down – Labour Gain from Conservatives

Devon
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport – 1,149 Oliver Colville – Labour gain from Conservatives. Ashcroft has Labour 13% ahead

East Sussex
Brighton Kemptown, 1,328 Simon Kirby – Labour gain from Conservatives

Hastings and Rye, 1,993 Amber Rudd – Labour gain from Conservatives

Hove, 1,868, Mike Weatherley standing down – Labour gain from Conservatives

Gloucestershire
Stroud, 1,299 Neil Carmichael – Labour gain from Conservatives

Hertfordshire
Stevenage, 3578 Stephen McPartland – Labour gain from Conservatives

Lancashire
Lancaster and Fleetwood, 333, Eric Ollerenshaw – Labour Gain from Conservatives

Morecambe and Lonsdale, 866, David Morris – Labour Gain from Conservatives

Lincolnshire
Lincoln – Labour gain from Conservatives, majority 1,058, Karl McCartney

London North East
Enfield North, Nick de Bois, 1,692 – Labour gain from Conservatives. Ashcroft had Lab 10% ahead in Oct 2014

London North West
Harrow East, 3,404, Bob Blackman – Labour gain from Conservatives

Hendon, 106 Matthew Offord – Labour gain from Conservatives

London West
Brentford and Isleworth, 1,958 Mary MacLeod – Labour gain from Conservatives

Ealing Central and Acton, 3,716 Angie Bray – Labour gain from Conservatives

Manchester
Bury North, 2,235 David Nuttall – Labour gain from Conservatives. Ashcroft in October 2014 had Labour 9% ahead.

Northamptonshire
Corby – Labour held since 2012 by-election but based on the General Election a Labour gain from Conservatives

Northampton North, Michael Ellis, 1,936 – Labour gain from Conservatives. Ashcroft in October 2014 had Labour 4% ahead.

Nottinghamshire
Broxtowe, 389, Anna Soubry – Labour gain from Conservatives

Sherwood, 214, Mark Spencer – Labour gain from Conservatives

Staffordshire
Cannock Chase, Aidan Burley standing down, 3,195 – Labour gain from Conservatives. Ashcroft in April had a 6% Labour lead.

Suffolk
Ipswich, 2,079, Ben Gummer – Labour gain from Conservatives. Ashcroft in Oct had Labour 7% ahead. But an Ipswich Star survey in April put Ben Gummer 5% ahead. I’ll take a guess Labour can gain this.

Waveney, Peter Aldous, 769 – Labour gain from Conservatives. Ashcroft in July 2014 had Labour ahead 9%. Return of former MP Bob Blizzard?

Teeside
Stockton South, 332, James Wharton – Labour Gain from Conservatives. Ashcroft in April had Labour 5% ahead.

South Glamorgan
Cardiff North, 194, Jonathan Evans standing down – Labour gain from Conservatives

Warwickshire
North Warwickshire, 54, Dan Byles standing down – Labour gain from Conservatives. Return of former MP Mike O’Brien.

Nuneaton, 2,069 Marcus Jones – Labour gain from Conservatives. Ashcroft in March had Labour 5% ahead.
West Midlands

Halesowen and Rowley Regis, James Morris, 2023 – Labour gain from Conservatives. Ashcroft in March had Labour 2% ahead.

Wolverhampton South West, Paul Uppal, 691, – Labour gain from Conservatives. Return of former MP Rob Marris. Ashcroft in July 2014 had Labour 16% ahead.

Yorkshire West
Dewsbury, Simon Reevell, 1,526 – Labour gain from Conservatives. In August 2014 Ashcroft had Labour 10% ahead.

Keighley, Kris Hopkins, 2,940 – Labour gain from Conservatives. Return of John Grogan.

Pudsey, Stuart Andrew, 1,659 – Labour gain from Conservatives. Probably one of the most uncertain seats. An Ashcroft poll in April had the Conservatives and Labour level at 40%. Ladbrokes have Labour favourite to take the seat. YouGov predict it’ll stay Conservative.
I’ll keep a Labour gain prediction largely due to assuming Labour will have the best Get Out the Vote organisation on the day.

DUP gain from Alliance Party

Northern Ireland (obvs)
Belfast East, Naomi Long, 1,533, DUP gain from Alliance Party. An opinion poll for Lucidtalk in January had the DUP 5% ahead. Their chances will be very much helped by the Ulster Unionists not standing a candidate as they did in 2010.

Plaid Cymru gain from Liberal Democrats

Wales Dywed
Ceredigion, Mark Williams, 8,324 – Plaid Cymru gain from Lib Dems. Might be a bit of a stretch but then much of Mark Williams large majority was only added in a 2010 surge and might vanish.

Respect gain from Labour

Yorkshire West
Bradford West – George Galloway’s seat won in a 2012 by-election – based on the General Election a Respect Gain from Labour

Scottish seats

SNP gains from Liberal Democrats

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross – SNP gain from Lib Dems

Ross, Skye and Lochaber – SNP gain from Lib Dems. Ashcroft in April had SNP 15% ahead

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey – SNP gain from Lib Dems. Ashcroft in April had SNP 29%

Gordon – SNP gain from Lib Dems

West Aderdeenshire and Kincardine – SNP gain from Lib Dems. Ashcroft in February had SNP 14% ahead of Tories.

Argyll and Bute – SNP gain from Lib Dems

North East Fife – SNP gain from Lib Dems (Ashcroft in April had SNP 13% ahead. Mathematically possible they could be saved by Tories tactically voting but probably too big a gap)

Edinburgh West – SNP gain from Lib Dems

East Dunbartonshire – SNP gain from Lib Dems (Ashcroft in April has SNP 11% ahead. Possibly saved by tactical voting but unlikely)

Berwickshire, Roxborough and Selkirk – SNP gain from Lib Dems (Though could be a Tory gain or a Lib Dem hold – depending on tactical voting) Ashcroft in April had Tories 30, SNP 29, Lib Dems 28

SNP gain from Conservatives

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale – SNP gain from Conservatives (Ashcroft in April had SNP 12% ahead)

SNP gains from Labour (deep breath)

Kirkaldy and Cowdenbench – SNP gain from Labour. Ashcroft in February had SNP 45, Labour 39 with little tactical vote to squeeze. On a uniform swing with YouGov a 6% Labour lead. Much of the Labour majority may have been a personal vote for Gordon Brown.

Aberdeen South – SNP gain from Labour. Anne Begg could be saved by tactical voting but on a uniform swing the SNP should be far ahead.

Edinburgh East – SNP gain from Labour. Again not a write-off for Labour put hard to see how it’s held if the SNP perform as well as recent polls have suggested.

Edinburgh South West – SNP gain from Labour. Feb Ashcroft had SNP 40 Labour 27 Tories 19. Could be some tactical voting but perhaps not enough to close the gap.

Edinburgh North and Leith – SNP gain from Labour. Ashcroft in April has SNP 14% ahead.

Aberdeen North – SNP gain from Labour

Dundee West – SNP gain from Labour

Stirling – SNP gain from Labour

Ochil and South Perthshire – SNP gain from Labour

Dunfermline West and Fife – SNP gain from Labour

Falkirk – SNP gain from Labour

Linlithgow and Falkirk – SNP gain from Labour

Livingstone – SNP gain from Labour

Midlothian – SNP gain from Labour

East Lothian – SNP gain from Labour

North Ayrshire and Arran – SNP gain from Labour

Central Ayrshire – SNP gain from Labour

Kilmarnock and Loudoun – SNP gain from Labour

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock – SNP gain from Labour. Ashcroft in February had SNP 11% ahead. Possible tactical voting could save it for Labour but it’s a big gap to close.

Dumfries and Galloway – SNP gain from Labour also a potential Tory gain on a split vote. Ashcroft in February had SNP 34 Tories 30 Labour 28

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East – SNP gain from Labour. Ashcroft in January had SNP 18% ahead
West Dunbartonshire – SNP gain from Labour. Ashcroft in January had SNP 47, Labour 38 with very little tactical vote to squeeze

Inverclyde – SNP gain from Labour. Labour might possibly hold on

Paisley and Renfrewshire South – SNP gain from Labour – might be a little closer than the 11% SNP lead in an April Ashcroft poll, and Douglas Alexander’s profile may help but I’d say SNP are the favourites.

East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow – SNP gain from Labour
Lanark & Hamilton East – SNP gain from Labour

Airdrie and Shotts – SNP gain from Labour. Ashcroft in January had SNP 8% ahead with little tactical vote to squeeze.

Paisley & Renfrewshire North – SNP gain from Labour. Labour could just hold on but looks difficult
Motherwell and Wishal – SNP gain from Labour. Ashcroft in January had SNP 50 Labour 39

Glasgow East – SNP gain from Labour. Ashcroft in January had SNP 51 Labour 37

Glasgow North – SNP gain from Labour. Ashcroft in January had SNP 45, Labour 33

Glasgow North West – SNP gain from Labour. Ashcroft in January had SNP 44 Labour 38. Labour could hold on but looks difficult with the current polls

Glasgow Central – SNP gain from Labour. Ashcroft has SNP 45 Labour 35

Glasgow South West – SNP gain from Labour. Ashcroft has SNP 21% ahead

Glasgow South – SNP gain from Labour. Ashcroft has SNP 15% ahead

Scotland’s results tonight really will be uncharted territory – and it’s almost impossible to predict how a lot of seats will go until the Returning Officers announce them.
If the polls showing an SNP landslide with around 49-54% of the vote nationally turn out to be correct then the other parties saving any seat could be seen as an achievement.

The results listed would have the SNP holding the 6 seats they won in 2010, gaining 10 of the 11 seats the Liberal Democrats currently have in Scotland, the Tories’ only Scottish seat, and 35 of Labour’s 41 seats, giving the Nationalists a total of 52 out of 59 Scottish seats, with Labour clinging on the 6 and the Liberal Democrats 1.

For the record these are the seats I have withstanding the SNP tide:

Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill- Ashcroft in January had SNP 46% Labour 43% but I think this is another seat which will come down to GOTV on the day. On a uniform swing based on the latest YouGov poll it would be c. Labour 50% SNP 46%. The huge Labour majority and the long serving Labour MP, Tom Clarke, might just withstand the SNP tsunami.

Glasgow North East – Ashcroft in January had Labour 46% SNP 39%. Probably the most likely of all Scottish seats to stay Labour.

East Renfrewshire – Ashcroft in April had SNP 39% Labour 36% Tory 20% – a 3% lead down from 9% earlier in the month. Jim Murphy may be saved by his profile locally and Tories voting tactically.

Rutherglen and Hamilton West – On a uniform swing with latest YouGov would be about Labour 46% SNP 45%. A May2015.com prediction has a 3% SNP lead. I’d guess Tom Greatrex can cling on.

Orkney and Shetland – Lib Dem hold against SNP. On a uniform swing based on the last YouGov poll Lib Dems will hang on by about 10%. May2015 also has the Lib Dems 3% ahead in their prediction. Though as with everywhere in Scotland an SNP gain is quite possible.

The 5 seats above are the only one’s Iain Dale predicts not going SNP. 2 seats which he predicts going SNP but I think might (just) stay Labour are:

Edinburgh South – Labour hold against SNP. Ashcroft poll in April has SNP 37 Labour 34 Tory 16 Lib Dem 8. Could come down to tactical voting. I think Ian Murray might just cling on.

Glenrothes – Labour hold against SNP. Admittedly this is a guess (as with all these predictions..) A uniform swing based on YouGov’s last poll would give the SNP 50, Labour 46. May2015 also has a 3% SNP lead. Lindsay Roy the incumbent MP is also standing down which won’t help Labour, but I’ll nervously chalk it up as a Labour gain as I think Labour’s Get out the Vote operation on the day may just save it.
Plus if The Daily Record’s last poll showing support for the SNP declining (very slightly) is right this is the sort of place Labour might just hold on to.

Now there’s also a few English seats where my predictions differ from Iain Dale’s, which is enough to tip things from his prediction of the Conservatives as the largest party to mine with Labour as the largest party.

Namely:

3 Liberal Democrat holds against the Conservatives:

Cornwall
North Cornwall, Dan Rodgerson, 2,981 – Lib Dem hold against Conservatives. Iain Dale predicts a strong ground war on day and the Tories squeezing the UKIP vote will make this a Conservative gain. It’s very possible but as Ashcroft polls in March and April both had Lib Dems 2% ahead, and they have the benefit of incumbency I’d guess this will stay Lib Dem.

Manchester
Cheadle, Mark Hunter, 3,272 – Lib Dem hold against Conservatives. In June 2014 Ashcroft had the Lib Dems 3% ahead and in October 2014 4% ahead. The Tories may have overtaken them since then but I’d guess Mark Hunter’s incumbency, and UKIP depressing the Tory vote could see the Lib Dems hold on.
YouGov’s final prediction has Cheadle ‘too close to call’ and leaning Conservative but I’ll stick with a Lib Dem hold prediction.

Wales
Brecon and Radnorshire, Roger Williams, 3,747 – Lib Dem hold against Conservatives. An Ashcroft poll in November had Lib Dems 31, Tories 27, UKIP 17, Labour 15. Although if the Tories can squeeze that large UKIP vote they’ll have a good chance, I’d predict incumbency will help the Lib Dems’ Roger Williams and he’ll squeak back in.

7 Labour gains from the Conservatives:

Cambridgeshire
Peterborough, Stewart Jackson, 4,861 – Labour gain from Conservatives. An Ashcroft poll in April had Labour 2% ahead. I think with this and a strong get out the vote campaign on the day they could snatch the seat.

Cheshire
Crewe and Nantwich, Edward Timson, 6, 046 – Labour Gain from Conservatives. A traditional Labour seat lost in a disastrous by-election in 2008. Despite the Tories’ Edward Timson seeming a popular local MP, an Ashcroft poll in April had Labour 3% ahead and I think having run a strong campaign Labour are in with a chance of getting it back.

London
Ilford North, Lee Scott, 5,404 – Labour gain from Conservatives. If Labour get around a 5% swing from the Tories in England, as the latest polls seem to be showing they’re a long way to overturning Lee Scott’s majority. I think an energetic local campaign and a large swing in London could see Labour take this.

Finchley and Golders Green, Mike Freer, 5,809 – Labour gain from Conservatives. An Ashcroft poll in April had Labour ahead by 2%. I think a strong local campaign could see them take Thatcher’s old stomping ground.

Merseyside
Wirral West, 2,436, Ester McVey – Labour gain from Conservatives. A really close and difficult seat to predict (aren’t they all) but an Ashcroft poll in April had Lab 46% Tory 43% UKIP 5% Lib Dem 3% Green 2% – the ultimate squeeze election. Ester McVey has narrowed the gap and has a high profile locally but I still think Labour are most likely to take the seat.

Norfolk
Norwich North, 3,901 Chloe Smith – Labour gain from Conservatives. Ashcroft in April had Labour 38% Conservatives 36%. Chloe Smith may have been closing the gap but I think Labour’s campaign can get out the vote on the day and win.
Various pundits seem to think this will be a Conservative hold, but I’ll stubbornly stick to my Labour gain prediction.

Wiltshire
South Swindon, Robert Buckland, 3,544 – Labour gain from Conservatives. An Ashcroft poll in April had Tories 37% and Labour 36% but given how close this seat is I think Labour could just sneak ahead with a strong campaign. Robert Buckland seems a popular local MP, but the former MP Anne Snelgrove standing again for Labour may negate this a bit. Could go either way but I’d guess a Labour gain.

A Labour gain from the Liberal Democrats:

London
Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Simon Hughes, 8,530 – Labour gain from Lib Dems. In October 2014 an Ashcroft poll had the Lib Dems on 36, Labour on 35 so most commentators fairly enough seem to expect Simon Hughes to hang on – but I’d guess a strong campaign from Labour and a strong swing to Labour in London might topple him.

A Labour hold against UKIP:

West Midlands
Dudley North, 649, Ian Austin. Iain Dale predicts this will seat will be a UKIP gain. An Ashcroft poll in December had Labour ahead on 37% but UKIP close behind on 34%. A think UKIP support will have declined a little by then, and Ian Austin, helped by the incumbency factor should pull through, as indeed he did against the Tories in 2010.

Conservative hold against UKIP:

Kent
South Thanet, 7,617, Laura Sandys standing down, – Conservative hold against UKIP. No-one really knows how the seat Nigel Farage is contesting will go. Iain Dale predicts Farage taking it.
A Survation poll in April had him 9% ahead but another poll for Lord Ashcroft had Conservatives 34, UKIP 32, Labour 26. It’s a genuine three-way marginal with perhaps an almost equal chance of being a UKIP gain, a Labour gain, or a Conservative hold – though I’ll hazard a guess at (very narrow) Conservative hold.

1 UKIP gain from the Conservatives:

Lincolnshire
Boston and Skegness, 12,426, Mark Simmons standing down – UKIP gain from Conservatives.
A guess as much as anything but this is typical of the East coast seats vulnerable to UKIP. A Survation poll in September 2014 showed UKIP 19% ahead (though it was on a small sample of c.300) An Ashcroft poll in January had the Conservatives ahead 38% to 35% so the Conservatives may well keep the seat, but I’d say UKIP have one of their strongest chances of a gain here.
In the European elections last year they were far ahead in the seat around 50% to 26% for the Tories.

An Ulster Unionist gain from Sinn Fein:

Fermanagh and South Tyrone, 4, Michelle Gildernew – Ulster Unionist Party gain from Sinn Fein. I haven’t seen much discussion of this at all (which may mean it’s a safe Sinn Fein hold) but as Sinn Fein won by 4 votes in 2010 and opinion polls seem to show a (small) drop in their support I’d make a guess this could be a Unionist gain.
There’s also a single Unionist candidate, after the Ulster Unionists and the DUP struck an electoral pact, which might help as Sinn Fein might lose a few votes to the SDLP and the Greens.

***

So, for the all-important parliamentary arithmetic, this model (if I can rather grandly call it that) gives us:

Labour 279 seats
(The 258 won in 2010, minus 35 lost to the SNP and 1 lost to George Galloway, plus 46 gains from Conservatives and 11 from Lib Dems)

Conservatives 267 seats
(The 307 won in 2010 (one of which is actually the Speaker John Bercow), minus 46 lost to Labour, 3 to UKIP, and 1 to the SNP, plus 11 gained from the Lib Dems)

Scottish National Party 52 seats
(The 6 won in 2010, plus 35 gained from Labour, 10 from the Liberal Democrats and 1 from the Conservatives)

Liberal Democrats 25 seats
(The 57 won in 2010, minus 11 lost to Labour, 10 to the Conservatives, 10 to the SNP and 1 to Plaid Cymru)

Democratic Unionist Party 9 Seats
(8 won in 2010, plus 1 gained from the Alliance Party)

Plaid Cymru 4 seats
(The 3 won in 2010, plus 1 gained from the Liberal Democrats)

Sinn Fein 4 seats
(The 5 won in 2010, minus 1 lost to the Ulster Unionists)

United Kingdom Independence Party 3 seats
(All 3 gained from the Conservatives since 2010, including Clacton held after being gained at a by-election)

Social Democratic and Labour Party 3 seats
(Holding the 3 seats won in 2010)

Greens 1 seat
(Caroline Lucas holding Brighton Pavilion from 2010)

Ulster Unionist Party 1 seat
(Gained from Sinn Fein)

Respect 1
(George Galloway holding Bradford West gained from Labour in a by-election)

Independent – 1
(Lady Sylvia Hermon the former Ulster Unionist MP holding her North Down seat she won as an Independent in 2010)

Of course these could all be entirely wrong. I’ll aim to return to them – in the next Parliament – to see how many I called right.
I’m eager to hear any comments or other people’s predictions.
Hope anyone who’s read this far enjoys a night of suspense, swings and statistics!

**

 

 


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Ian Paisley: That Turbulent Priest

By Dannie Gruff

So I guess we are rid of that turbulent Priest.

No I’m not writing about Thomas Beckett but the arguably even more turbulent (and that really isn’t saying too much) Ian Paisley. By all accounts a loyalist to the max, a talented orator, a bit of a bigot, a nuisance – throwing snowballs at the Taoiseach, heckling the Pope – he led quite a life.

Please don’t think this is any kind of obituary. For one thing, I wouldn’t know where to start, I wasn’t a fan personally. This is just some thoughts on his passing.

Compare the two Paisleys – not Ian Senior and his son Ian Junior – but the Paisley at the height of the troubles and the Paisley who passed this week.

From his journey as “Dr. No”, to one half of the Chuckle Brothers with his pal Martin McGuinness, although it seems this ability to share a laugh with his political opponents was nothing new. 

In essentials, I suspect Paisley remained much as he always was.

My Mum recounted to me earlier how they were all brought up to fear the man and the ideas he preached.

But it seems there was a change, perhaps an acceptance that an ability to compromise and forgive in the cause of peace might actually improve the lives of his constituents a little more than endless shouting and the occasional ‘Save Ulster from Sodomy’ rally.

Or perhaps he was just tempted by a Higher Power – and when I say that, I mean he was literally tempted by the office of First Minister, not some kind of Jesus in the Desert temptation scenario. (Although if that were the case, surely Peter Mandleson would play the role of Tempter/Satan?)

He was one hell of a heckler. Like a less witty Dennis Skinner. He heckled the Pope, “the scarlet woman of Rome”, denouncing him as the Antichrist. Naturally the Antichrist, the embodiment of evil as we know it would be a woman in Paisley’s mind. But at least he was a fan of Nathaniel Hawthorne.

On a related point to suggest the Pope was a false Prophet was I believe a tad hypocritical. Paisley certainly fancied himself as some kind of Prophet, plus almost everything that came out of his mouth was almost definitely false. I mean he was at one time convinced that seat No. 666 in the European Parliament was reserved for the Antichrist. And no it wasn’t the seat reserved for JP2.

A classic bigot, he held highly conservative and shamelessly anti-Catholic views. That’s Paisley, not JP… Although granted, the two share pretty similar theological principles, just different attitudes to Catholics… Paisley was for want of a better phrase a bit of a “Bible Basher” – I’m not a fan of this term, but there you go – once stating;

“Line dancing is as sinful as any other type of dancing, with its sexual gestures and touching. It is an incitement to lust.”

One can only assume he saw twerking as a one-way ticket to hell.

I don’t need to write about the historic scenes on Devolution Day – maybe I’m too sentimental about such things but I really like re-watching this. 

Respect to Tony for that one. Perhaps partly because of Blair’s own background – Grandson of an Orangeman, later famously converting to Catholicism. Sure like many times before and after, Blair was perhaps a little over-optimistic about his own abilities and influence – to quote from Tony Benn’s Diaries:

Wednesday, September 8, 1999:

Meeting with the Garvaghy Road Residents’ Association from Northern Ireland. There have been 200 attempts by the Orange Order to march along the Catholic Garvaghy Road since the march was banned in 1998.

They told me a quite extraordinary story. Jonathan Powell, the Prime Minister’s chief of staff, had been over to see them with the idea that Tony Blair himself would lead the Orange Order march down the Garvaghy Road and Cherie Blair would lead a parallel march of Catholics.

I said: ‘I can’t believe that suggestion was seriously put forward.’ 

I can. What I can’t believe is why this great idea never came to pass. I’m sure the peace deal would have been a piece of cake after an action like that. What could possibly have gone wrong?

Sure I’m not a fan – But he will go down in the history books. Perhaps for saying so many things with such conviction and then doing the exact opposite; “I will never sit down with Gerry Adams”.

Yes you will.

For his last speech in the Commons he dropped this bombshell;

“There are people in Northern Ireland with diverse religious and political convictions… They can live together as neighbours.”

The fact that political leaders feel the need to say such things reflects how deeply entrenched Sectarianism is in Northern Ireland. For me Paisley’s passing has served as a reminder of how deep these divides go. Of course, few of us were pleased to see the Orange Order sticking their oar in the referendum campaign this weekend. But how some in Scotland draw parallels between their own treatment at the hands of the British Establishment, to the experience of Irish Catholics is beyond me.

Salmond’s no Mandela, I think we can all agree on that one. He’s also no Michael Collins.

I finish with my favourite Paisley quote, one of asking God for help in dealing with Thatcher, that I stumbled across only upon his death. If I can regret one thing, it’s that I never got to see him deliver one of his sermons.

“We pray this night that thou wouldst deal with the prime minister of our country. Oh God, in wrath take vengeance against this wicked, treacherous and lying woman: take vengeance upon her, oh Lord, and grant that we shall see a demonstration of thy power!”

Quite. What an odd man.


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Downton Abbey gets political

So Frances O’Grady thinks Britain is becoming more like Downton Abbey.

Let’s hope not. I mean for one thing, it would be a bloody boring existence.

We’re hearing rumours that Downton’s getting political for its fifth series. Here’s a sneak preview.

The Dowager Duchess and Lady Mary are discussing the atomisation of British society under Dark Sith Prime Minister Ramsay McDonald.

Dowager Duchess (Maggie Smith to you and I) : So he only got in because we gave poor people and women the vote? I warned you all about this! Next they’ll be giving the vote to the Irish, like that Tom Branson, who I’m supposed to treat like one of the family and who now runs Downton. I could swear he used to be my chauffeur.

Lady Mary: Yes he was, and what of it Granny, don’t be so Classist.

Maggie: What does it mean to be “Classist”? Anyway, I’m old money, old times. I don’t even know what a weekend is (only Downton fans will get this one). Why shouldn’t I question it when my grand daughter falls in love with the Chauffeur?

Mary/Michelle Dockery: Because it’s not right Granny. Have you not read any Marx? Tom borrowed it from Daddy’s library. Daddy didn’t like Tom reading, particularly when his views about Irish Independence came out. For some reason pertaining to the plot, Daddy never fired him.

Maggie: So why did we all allow my grand daughter to marry a member of the IRA when as I have stated in previous episodes, a woman shouldn’t have political opinions of her own, until she is married – and then she takes on the opinions of her husband (actual quote from the series). Surely this means that Sybil joined the IRA too?

Michelle: Oh Granny. We don’t mention Tom’s IRA links anymore, it’s like it never happened. Besides, you didn’t mind when I married the boring Solicitor.

Maggie: I did mind. Besides you did that to protect Downton.

Matthew during his brief paralysis episode. Ended I believe when Mary dropped a cup of tea and Matthew jumped out of his chair to pick it up. Because I mean, one should always choose ridiculously unbelievable storylines over having disabled leading men.

Michelle: True dat. As I recall, I fell in love with Matthew as a direct consequence of Daddy not fighting for my rightful inheritance as the eldest child.

Maggie: Yes but that was just a pointless story line courtesy of Lord Julian Fellowes, who was at the time fighting for the right for his wife to inherit the Kitchener title. Funny how people’s Socialist Feminist principles come to the fore when people’s titles are under threat.

Michelle: Cheap shot Granny. So you’re not keen on Tom, the IRA guy. Fair. What about Jack, the chap Rose your great-niece, was dating in the last series?

Maggie: You mean the black guy? I was err… totally cool with that, whatever can you mean? Poor Rose. She was broken-hearted when Jack nobly didn’t marry her, as to preserve her class status in society.

Michelle: Quite. Granny, have you ever wondered how our family manages to be both so politically correct and so historically inaccurate at the same time?

Maggie: No, it doesn’t. I care nothing for such things. We all manage to remain white, posh, rich and anti-irish at the end of the day. Now this pesky McDonald, what are we to do with him?

To be continued….

God bless Carson and his love for the status quo.


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How to crash Cannes

By Dannie Gruff

Adapted from my debut novel “How to look like you belong somewhere when you don’t have an invite.”

I realise the Cannes Film Festival finished about a month ago. But then it’s never too late to share hints and tips on crashing things is it? A wiser blogger than I would have written this blog as the Festival came to a close, and people still had some lingering interest. But I’ve always thought courting popularity and relevance is rather bourgeois..

After having worked with a family in Cannes for six months, I knew the town fairly well. I had asked the Grandmother of the kids I looked after, how easy it was to get into the film festival. Her answer left me sorely disappointed, apparently it was as tricky as I had heard with everything shut off to anyone without a pass.

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Around the time we were almost resigned to defeat.

An NUS extra card wasn’t enough either. Even if Pete and I had actually managed to arrange picking up our life memberships before we left. Apparently you needed a letter from a film school too to get a student pass.

But undeterred, we rocked up on the first Saturday night with little but our charms to recommend us. My companions Pete and Greg being sorely hungover from the previous night’s antics – while I was, well just probably doing that thing where I look bored, even when I’m not – so even attempting to look the part seemed like a dubious strategy.

Upon arrival at the front of the Festival Palace we saw what we expected; swarms of people in their best robes and tails holding up signs ranging from “travelled here from England – ticket please” to “will kiss for a pass”. The thing with Cannes is all you need is a ticket for a film screening to gain access. It really is that easy – at least in principle. But there were just too many people doing it, and they seemed to have been hanging round for hours. There must be a way to have more fun.

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Just after we “broke in” via the car park. See our hands already covering the fact we don’t have a pass.

We had almost resigned ourselves to watching The Good, the Bad and the Ugly on the beach (the scraps thrown to the riff-raff of the Festival). But I didn’t come to Cannes Film Festival to sit on a beach and watch a Western. I knew we could find a way, besides I had read that it is possible to crash Cannes on the internet – and as we all know the internet is never wrong.

We had a glass of wine on the bench and discussed the situation. Pete was flaking having been out til at least 7am that morning partying away (classique Pete). We agreed on a collective recharge at McDo’s [French for McDonalds] and so set off with half-opened bottle of wine in hand.

Sorry if this tale is full of more ups and downs than you expected – but don’t fret too much for us – it was by no means a lost cause and suddenly our luck began to change. As we passed the Festival Palace (again), I noticed a group of policeman standing outside a door, who didn’t seem to be checking passes, unlike at the other entrances. It was clearly not an official entrance, but surely behind every door there’s another door waiting? I nudged to Gregor that this gap in the wall had some promise and before I knew it he had casually strolled past the policemen and through the gap.

We followed, trying to remain cool, calm and collected, although trying not to giggle at how “cool” this was, was by no means easy. We were truly giving the finger to the establishment, strolling past policemen patrolling, what turned out to be a car park.

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Looking pleased with ourselves.

Remember those wise words of mine, “behind a door there’s usually a door”? There’s logique to it. After a few minutes exploring this car park, and feeling like perhaps we were never going to make it – we climbed some stairs and Voila – we were in. There were some security guards at the entrance but I imagine no-one thought anyone would be so duplicitous and scheming as to “break-in” through the car park.

The game was on. Our next task was to try hide the fact we weren’t wearing passes, everyone else was – and there were still security checks going on. For the next hour I think I had my hand permanently attached to my neck, like I had a sore throat or something (rock ‘n roll).

We saw something resembling a party and Greg sniffed something resembling Moët (in joke). We headed in the Moët’s direction, finding ourselves in a party right on the coast. Nice enough, but we were getting hungry and the night was young. Alas, cursed for breaking in before our precious McDo.

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Less pleased here.

We tried a couple more smaller parties, but too many had guest lists. One was for Finnish film, where we attempted and failed to convince them we were huge fans. Eventually we found one – I’d be lying if I remembered what it was about – but the main point is, is that they served wine and peanuts. No McDo, but it would do for now.

Feeling that rush one can only get from breaking into a Film Festival to gain access to peanut snacks, we decided we should try see a film. The entrance to the main screenings had heavy security, so we tried our luck at the exit, and voila! I think that can sometimes be a trend in society – while people obsessively check credentials at entrances, no-one is actually bothering with the exits.

We snuck into a film screening involving planes and much pretension (it really was awful). After about five minutes, Gregor loudly informed the entire cinema that he was leaving as this was “shit”, and by now Pete and my stomachs were rumbling too much to resist. Slipping out we had a last go in the enclosed area at a Russian film party. We gave fake names but no such luck. I can’t believe neither Countess Danna Grufferina, Count Pyotr Mercosky nor Count Gregory Daubski were on the guest list.. Even our self-assuredness wasn’t enough for them.

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Looking smug.

So now to the highlight of the evening – our recharge at McDo. That’s when we began the fake stories. Hearing British accents almost everywhere we started chatting to randoms and making up histories. This was better fun than the parties – yet this was to be short-lived. We were in cocky-mode now. We needed to do more crashing to fulfil our inner desires for anarchy and rebellion.

Through the process of… telling porkies, we began to stick with our stories. I was soon to be appearing in the new Star Wars – “Shouldn’t you be in London?” A common response. Pete “hipster” Mercer was a composer for some low-budget independent films, though I was sure to inform them that he had turned down “lots of big names”. [Yes I am cringing as I write this]. And Gregor? Well Gregor was of course a published poet. [Alas for Pete and I – this remains the only one of these histories to be actually true.]

Further along the promenade, we saw a large tent and a large queue outside it. So we slipped around the back where a kitchen appeared to be and followed some random chap in. “Besides queuing is for riff raff” we convinced ourselves. The woman stopped me at the kitchen door asking me who I was, and I just pointed at the chap who had gone in just before me and simply said in most probably awful French, “Bonjour, la meme Madame” (the same), I don’t understand how it worked, particularly when I am convinced I must have seemed like a right wally – but it did.

This party was ok, I suppose. I think you should judge a party by the length of the queue, and I’ve never had to queue for a party I really enjoyed. The length of this party’s queue was certainly not correlational to how good it was. It was actually shit, mainly due to the people, the music and the.. well the whole thing in fact.

This can be summed up by a British man I met inside who actually claimed to be “Mr Glastonbury”. As in, that he could get anybody in. (I hope this includes the Abbey as National Trust prices can be extortionate.) He was possibly the most annoying person I’ve ever met, and I’ve met Lembit Opik.

We soon got bored. Next we tried the world famous Carlton, where Harrison (my co-star) was staying. We tried the front door – no luck. So we walked along a few hundred metres and found a small hedge. Judging my chances of jumping over without being seen, I waited for a waiter to turn his back and we were in, strolling up to the hotel like we were the coolest kids in town (writing this all is painful, believe me – but my crashing tips need to be spread to the masses).

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Delicieux snax!

We met some nice, funny people but alas they were all meant to be there and so were slowly heading out to invite-only parties. So we next tried our chances at the beach parties. Now this is what we were waiting for.
Live music, dancing on the beach, unpretentious people (in the main) – generally lots of fun was had. We tried our chances at the next party along the beach but couldn’t get in (I’m not sure why we did that – as the party we were at was perfectly fine – I suppose it’s again that addictive quality to “crashing”). But as folk started leaving, we heard Bohemian Rhapsody at this more exclusive beach party – knew it was our last chance – I mean it’s hardly a middle-of-the-night song is it – and so we jumped the hedge and were in.

And then there was another party at a hotel. Was ok. I mean parties are parties eh?

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Oh dear.

By my calculations we “crashed” five. Yet ironically (or perhaps pitifully) my favourite party was the one that didn’t require sneaking past security guards. Bored, we three musketeers slowly drifted off to the train station and happened across a cute little bar with people spilling out onto the streets. No crashing required, and the people were cooler. Another correlation perhaps?

In typical fashion we lost Greg – so Pete and I began the journey home, as the commuters were off to work. Rock ‘n’ roll! (It was actually Sunday so that line doesn’t really work). Luckily I was with Pete when he fell asleep, otherwise he could have ended up in Italy – tempting though that was. Besides, he would have been fine – like that time he got the London night bus and ended up in Stanstead airport. He only had to wait there seven hours before he could get a bus back.

So what did I learn? Crashing is fun, there’s a sort of addictive thrill that goes with it – and an almost toxic thirst for more – but the most important lesson I learnt was friendship, love and solidarity, with my fellow nobodies.

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A thrilling tale where important lessons of love and friendship were learned. Aaah.

It was the company that made it. Each party was cool but we got quickly bored and wanted to move onto the next adventure. And the less exclusive the party, the more fun we had. No jokes.

Hang on no. That’s not the most important lesson I learnt at all. The most important lesson I learnt was that if you dress relatively well and act like an arrogant, rather conceited partygoer, it’s pretty easy to crash Cannes.

See you next year for more tales of how to do a “f**k you” to the establishment! (In short – through lying to people, while accepting their hospitality, peanuts and wine.)


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Is a Live Below the Line spoof below the line?

The Live Below the Line campaign aims to raise awareness and funds for the fight against extreme poverty. Participants live on £1 a day for 5 days in a bid to have a greater understanding of poverty itself.

Whilst there’s no doubt that participants have the best of intentions, want to do something to help, and learn from experience, there are many elements of the campaign that we take issue with and there are certainly a number of people who seem to miss the point – tweeting that they’re off to enjoy a giant kebab to celebrate completing the challenge, or complaining about the hardship of having to shop in Tescos..

It’s in tribute to such self-sacrifice that we post this diary we’ve obtained.

Jo Qualmann more seriously examines some of the issues the campaign raises in her blog ‘Why I won’t live below the line’.

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My Live Below the Line Diary: Day One

So here it goes. £1 a day for £5 days. Here’s my story. A tale of suffering but also of hope (after all the suffering).

I’ve always loved the country of Africa and been passionate about poverty, so as I begin the challenge, of course I’m excited to see how I cope with living like an African, but I’m also apprehensive and have a lot of questions about what this week will mean for me.

Can I really live on just £5 for five days when I’d usually spend this on just one glass of vino in a bar?

Will anyone I know spot me shopping in Tesco, or worse, Lidl?

Will those people I’m sure I’ve seen eyeing me up in the gym lose interest if I start to look all thin and mangled?

So many questions!

To kick things off today I went to Tesco to do some poverty-style shopping. It’s not the sort of place I’d usually buy food but I guess this whole week is about new experiences and taking me out of my comfort zone.
I thought it’d be really difficult to buy anything for under £1 but I was pleasantly surprised by how much I could buy for so little. It turns out there’s loads of cheap food on offer if you’re just willing to shop around. I don’t know what people are complaining about.

I found a packet of 20 Weetabix for 99p in the ‘Reduced to clear’ section – I guess because nobody wanted such a dull cereal – so snapped them up. If I have four a day that’s breakfast and lunch sorted!

I also managed to get three tins of Thomas the Tank Engine spaghetti shapes for £1, which will not only be nourishing but spotting the different characters will be the sort of entertaining game an African child would love.

I’m starting to think this week will be a lot of fun.

I also ventured into ‘Poundland’ to see what bargains they had, and managed to get two Easter eggs for a Pound which seems a pretty sweet deal.
I hope the Africans have Poundland where they can pick up cheap Easter eggs. Although in fact do they know it’s Easter-time at all?

This week’s already raising so many questions I’ve never considered before.
After dinner of two tins of spaghetti and an Easter egg for dessert I’m going to bed with my stomach full as well as my head.

I made sure to instagram photos of my dinner, so people can feel involved in my struggle. Just hope none of my followers ever actually have to eat this kind of thing.

1 day down, 4 to go!

This is the amount of food I imagine I'll have to live on!

This is the amount of food I imagine I’ll have to live on!

Day Two

My Live Below the Line odyssey is proving really challenging but also so rewarding.

Today got off to a frustrating start as I tried to toast my Weetabix and found it just fell apart in the toaster. Perhaps this is why the pack was reduced? After attempting to salvage the crumbs and toast them in the AGA, I eventually gave up and was forced to throw away two precious Weetabix slices.

But then I suppose this highlights the sort of setback Africans face all the time. We’re lucky that if something goes wrong with a meal we can just make something else. If their breakfast gets trampled by an elephant or stolen by a monkey they have to go hungry.

But as I ate my replacement slices of Weetabix, cold and raw, I did feel a sense of contentment with my humble fare. Despite all their problems I do envy the Africans their simplicity of life, free of modern stresses and complications.

I made a Weetabix sandwich for lunch, with a couple of cans of tinned fruit for variety. (I don’t think I’ll count this as coming out of my budget as in Africa I would have just found these growing on trees.)

I can’t say this challenge isn’t tough as I’m already worrying about what I’ll make for dinner. I’m not sure I can face another Weetabix main course and Easter egg dessert!
But I’m sure I’ll think of something using my instincts.

At least I’ll have plenty of money I haven’t spent this week on food to spend on other things like some new items for the old wardrobe to cheer me up. Though I might have to really indulge on eating this weekend to ensure I put the weight back on quickly, so the clothes actually fit me!

Day Three

This is hell.

I don’t know how the Africans manage it every day.

I’ve been concerned that I might not be getting the most authentically African experience during my week of living to in poverty, so I started the day by travelling to work in the African manner – walking six miles with my briefcase on my head.
I felt a little guilty as I was wearing shoes – hard to come by for the average African I’m sure, but to be fair they don’t have the threat of London cyclists cycling over their toes (although granted, it must be frightening to go barefoot with all the snakes).

After 100 metres my briefcase had fallen off three times and I’d been abused by some local youths who seemed to think the issue of poverty is funny.
Although I had to give up at the end of my street and jump in a taxi, it gave me a new respect for the women of Nairobi and Johannesburg who have to walk miles every day just to get water.

Now after my stressful journey and a hard day harvesting the fields of management consultancy I’m exhausted.

I’m now feeling very morose and grumpy. For lunch I microwaved up some left-over spaghetti shapes, but they’ve now become a horrible mush and all the engines look the same which is dispiriting.

Knowing I had to make something cheap for dinner I brought a few assorted organic vegetables and herbs to make a healthy stew (I sweet talked the dude at the Delicatessen into selling me some kale, a radish and a mangel-wurzel for a mere £1.50), but I’m afraid it looked and tasted like putrid garbage. No wonder there’s so much violence in Africa with people having to eat stuff like this all the time. I’d be furious!

My mood isn’t helped by the fact the repetitive meals I’m eating are so boring. In Africa I’d at least have some safari animals to keep me entertained while I eat. Might have to put The Lion King on.
Or that Made in Chelsea episode when they all go to Africa to talk about their feelings on safari.

Day Four

This is so tough. I’m worried I’m in the early stages of starvation. I’m sure the seagulls outside my window are starting to eye me up like vultures.

Following the fiasco of last night’s vegetable stew I’m running perilously short on money.

After raw Weetabix for breakfast and a Weetabix sandwich and tin of peaches for lunch I was desperate for something different for dinner. But what could I afford already being down to my last 50p?

I considered doing some hunter-gathering but I thought I might risk arrest if I ventured out with a spear, and I wasn’t sure I’d want to eat a squirrel from the local park even if I could catch one.

Eventually, examining the more dubious looking sections of Tesco, I managed to pick up a box of sausages for £1. I threw half of them away to make up for going over budget, but this still left me 4 sausages for 50p.

I then thought I might try cooking them over a fire for an authentic African experience, and I was rather proud of myself that, with the help of a few logs ‘borrowed’ from next door’s woodpile (sssh!), a cigarette lighter and an old can of petrol, I managed to get a blaze going in the back garden.

Unfortunately I was a bit too good at getting the fire going and within a few minutes my sausages were burnt, charred and inedible, and it had also destroyed a large section of the lawn.
I have really struggled to get the fire if I didn’t have smoke-detecting sprinklers in the garden. One can never be too careful.
I felt such a failure, though to be fair in Africa I’d probably have a few wives to help me cook.

All this meant I had to eat Weetabix yet again on my own for dinner. On top of the starvation, I actually feel really lonely too from having to cancel all the lunch dates I had planned.

I certainly have!

I certainly have!!

This whole week has been so exhausting. I can’t imagine having to do a tribal war dance on these energy levels.

Luckily tomorrow is my last day of poverty. It can’t come soon enough!

Day Five

Today’s been the toughest one of all and I’m not sure if I’d have managed it if I didn’t have the end in sight.

I was really struggling, but luckily I did have a stroke of good luck. On the way to work I passed an ice cream parlour offering free samples. I went back throughout the day and had about eight cones of ice-cream. Both filling and tasty!

I did wonder if by accepting free food I was cheating on the challenge, but I don’t think so as the free samples were just the equivalent of the aid agencies you find in Africa giving out free stuff.

I might request that the money I raise in sponsorship could be used specifically to provide ice cream for African children, and perhaps an airfare for me so I can hand them out myself, while telling them my inspiring story. Though would I have time before the ice-cream melted in the scorching African heat? Might have to rethink this.

I imagine for welcome for my ice-cream van will be something like this.

I imagine for welcome for my ice-cream van will be something like this.

This week’s been really tough, but it’s also been eye-opening, and looking back I’ve really enjoyed the challenge of living in poverty. I feel so much stronger as a person now I know I could manage it. From now on I’ll follow the plight of Africans with a new understanding, and the work of heroes like Bono with a new appreciation.

I’m so lucky to live in a wealthy country and must keep using my good fortune to help others.
I do think if only more people appreciated their privilege the world would be a happier place.

On the way back from work a homeless man whined at me for money. ‘Sorry mate’ I said ‘I understand real poverty. You don’t know how lucky you are.’

But thanks to my week of living below the line I now do. Hakuna Matata.

Now it’s 5pm – the week’s basically over. I’m off to get the biggest Nando’s to celebrate!

 


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Frozen isn’t Feminist?! Let it go!

By Dannie Gruff

Over the last few months if there’s one thing I should be sick of it’s 5 year old girls singing “Libérée, délivrée, Je ne mentirai plus jamais”.

When I started working with these kids, I had no idea what they were talking about. I mean I suppose even for those with working-levels of Franglais, “Libérée” sounds something like “liberate”, so I guessed it was some kind of younger girls’ feminist anthem.

Then I clocked on. A few months ago, I realised that my girls were singing “Let it go” from Disney’s Frozen. I wasn’t well acquainted with the song at the time, or it’s singer, Idina Menzel – or as John Travolta calls her for some reason – Adele Dazeem, but that was all to change. (Though now I’ve got to know her back catalogue it makes slightly more sense that friends used to sing ‘Defying Grufferty’ at me.)

I recently found another family and along with it, another 5 year old girl who sings this song, all the time. I’m not exaggerating – to say these girls love this song wouldn’t do it justice. It’s all they sing. Personally I’m more a fan of je voudrais un bonhomme de neige/ do you want to build a Snowman, but I know better than to argue with a 5 year old about such things.

So, I watched the film with the kids a little while back. I enjoyed it, it was in French but it was Disney so…. you know I got the jist. I particularly enjoyed Olaf the Snowman and his pipe dream of chilling out under the sun. My favourite character? Elsa of course. What a woman!

More recently, I happened across an article written by a dad. He doesn’t go out of his way to herald Frozen as a feminist masterpiece, but he does talk about it in light of his daughter’s love for Let it Go/ Libérée, délivrée. And argues that the song is at the centre of the film’s message; “I want versus I am”.

It seems no coincidence that children everywhere adore this song.

So I went on a fact-finding mission. Asking my two girls (from different schools, different parts of town) who they preferred – Elsa the Queen of Arendelle and/or Snow, or her younger sister Anna – who in some ways is your classic Disney heroine – she makes some bad decisions (going in search of her sister without a coat in a blizzard being one example), is often quite helpless, is certainly a hopeless romantic, but does indeed end up with her Prince Charming.

I don’t mean to be harsh to Anna, I find her a most endearing, fun character – particularly when she gets cross or when she sings such lines as “I don’t know if I’m elated or gassy”.

But she’s nothing to Elsa.

So I was surprised when googling “Frozen, feminist”, I found only negative articles and blogs. I read a few and while not without their important points, each one seems to fail to mention – unlike this dad I mentioned earlier – what young girls are saying about the film.

So back to my quizzing of these five year old girls. Who did they prefer?

Elsa of course. And why? Answers ranged from “because she is the one with the power”, to “because she is her own person”. (Not much of a range, I know but then my working sample was two.) One of the four year old boys I work with said a similar thing.

When I pressed as to why they didn’t want to be Anna; the one with the romantic happy-ever-after ending, the answers were again pretty straightforward, both saying that marriage was of little importance to either of them. One even said she would rather be alone and frighten people than be somebody’s wife. I can sympathise with that.

I’ve always wondered at Disney’s obsession with romance. With Princes who sweep a young, usually naïve, and always beautiful damsel off her sweet little feet. Frozen, like other more recent Disney films gives couples a little time to get to know each other first. (OK granted, I think Anna and Kristoff know each other for about a day, but I doubt many people notice that and besides they go through a lot together…)

It seems to me that much of the criticism of Frozen seems to come from people who haven’t actually spoken to young children about what it means to them. Having not considered that in the eyes of young children, the fact that Elsa is saved at the end not from Prince Charming’s kiss but from the love of her sister – says a great deal.

Some feminist criticism has been levelled at the fact Disney changed the name of the Hans Christian Anderson story on which the film is loosely based, from The Snow Queen; to Frozen, removing any sign that the film centres around women. Because that’s usually what Disney does – shy away from having woman-centered titles…

Now I’m not saying that Disney’s most famous titled-leading ladies, Cinderella, Sleeping Beauty, Snow White – are in my view very good role models for young women. Despite being often strong women themselves, they only find redemption via a man they barely know. But Frozen is different. It’s pretty bloody obvious in my mind that the two leading characters are women – the male characters in this film undoubtedly pale into significance (perhaps ironically except Olaf the Snowman, though I’m not sure he defines either way). Throughout the film, the men are rather negative characters, bar nice wholesome Kristoff who is by no means perfect and a bit of a Fixer-Upper (I’m still not sure what this means).

Unsurprisingly, it seems non-English speaking children would rather not watch their favourite films in English with subtitles. In fact almost every other translation has directly-translated The Snow Queen, and almost no other country has used the title Frozen. So if there is any confusion about the role of men in the film, the families I work with are in little doubt that it stars a woman (I suppose it could be a gay Queen.. but come on a gay leading character in a Disney film? They won’t risk that again after Hercules…) And I wager more children have seen it in languages other than English around the world anyway. So, although it might be easier to critique in this way, we shouldn’t act like English is the only language in existence.

Other criticism says that many of the women characters in Anderson’s original tale have been replaced by chaps. And that in fact the original story centres around a young girl Gerda who is on a mission to rescue a boy, Kai. Sure, they’ve cut some women out of the original tale. But surely nobody can doubt that the two women at the centre of the story are by far the strongest characters. Besides in the original story, The Snow Queen is the enemy – I thought it was a nice twist that Elsa was a sort of strange mix of both good and bad, a complex character who could be rather cold and cruel (the antithesis of the classic Disney heroine), yet sacrificed her own happiness to protect her sister from harm. Besides she can also put up a good fight and she’s had far from an easy life.

I could have written a detailed feminist critique deconstructing various scenes from this film, like sisters before me. But I don’t think you can write about this film and at the same time ignore the voices and views of those who love the film so much.

And I also strongly believe that the song at the centre of the film is the main moment for young women out there. So rarely are films made where a young woman is talking about not what she wants to be, or what she could learn to be – but in fact what she has always been, something that is an intrinsic part of her identity – despite being reviled by almost everyone for it.

The girls I look after who sing this anthem so often, particularly love playing out the scene in the song where she lets her hair fall free, from a rather boring middle-aged up-do to a long free, dare I say it, even slightly messy number. She then slams the door on all the other haters.

I hope these kids – girls and boys alike – continue to appreciate the wonderful free-spirited, often selfless Elsa.

Sometimes it feels like others are too quick to assume children are too naïve to comprehend what a woman – who finally chooses to embrace her true identity – looks like. For my part, I think kids, and particularly young girls, know a woman not defined by the men around them when they see one. You go Elsa.


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REVEALED: Chris Grayling’s Personal List of Banned Books for Prisoners

As Dannie’s home MP is Chris Grayling, we have some sources within his office, and as such we’ve obtained these shocking internal emails from within the Ministry of Justice.

They expose beyond doubt the weak intellectual foundations upon which the ban on prisoners receiving books is based.

**

From: Grayling, Chris <graylingc@parliament.uk>
Date: 31st March 15:32
Subject: RE: Books in Prison
To: Simon Hughes <hughess@parliament.uk>

Hughes,

Thanks for tweeting in defence of the ban on prisoners being sent books.

Your loyalty is appreciated. And duly noted.

I see a load of writers worried about their royalties are still complaining – and that naturally our friends at the BBC are giving them airtime.

I’m not sure our argument that prisoners are still reading 50 Shades of Grey is really winning these eggheads over, so I’ve drawn up a little list of the sort of dangerous books that in fact inspired the ban.

I’m planning to write to HM Prison’s Service asap asking them to check each and every cell for the “books” outlined below, to prove our point.

In the meantime perhaps you could mention them in any media interviews,

Cheers,

Chris

 

Prison Notebooks by Antonio Gramsci

We don’t want to be encouraging prisoners to think about political theory. Well in fact to think at all. It just adds fuel to the fire of this “votes for prisoners” claptrap.

100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez

Titles like this will just depress morale for those in solitary confinement.

The Hunger Games by Suzanne Collins

Assume this is some kind of social commentary about the rise of food banks? Don’t want HM Government blamed for people not controlling their finances.

Crime and Punishment by Fyodor Dostoyevsky

Raskolnikov got a mere eight years labouring in Siberia. Another novel soft on crime, soft on the causes of crime. Much like a certain opposition party we all know. Rasko also gets redemption at the end which isn’t really our line.

No Country for Old Men by Cormac McCarthy

Don’t want to encourage pensioners to complain they’ve got no money, no prospects, no country… we get enough of that already.

The Ballad of Reading Gaol by Oscar Wilde

Again, paints a very unhelpful view of prison life. Also written by Oscar Wilde, a highly disreputable character when he was loafing around Parisian B&Bs. I don’t think the owners should have been obliged to let him stay but that’s another story. I’ve made this point before.

A Room of One’s Own by Virginia Woolf

Such sentiments will only encourage whining appeals against the bedroom tax upon release.

A Room with a View by E.M. Forster

Again prisoners just don’t deserve such things.

Tom Jones by Henry Fielding

Haven’t these crooks got better things to do in prison than read celebrity biographies of over-rated Welsh crooners?

Harry Potter by J.K. Rowling

Isn’t she pals with the Browns? Besides, why would anyone read this? Wizards aren’t real.
Add that whole lot of Oxford intellectuals Tolkien, Lewis etc… Sure they use Lions and Wizards to spread the gospel but it still reeks of the dark arts.

Silence of the Lambs by Thomas Harris

Don’t want any prisoners thinking if they start eating people’s livers with fava beans and a nice Chianti, they’ll get a glass screen instead of bars – all in a bid to intimidate us.

Long Walk to Freedom by Nelson Mandela

Don’t want books suggesting some prison sentences may be unjust. Also, doesn’t this promote terrorism?

The Shawshank Redemption by Stephen King

Prison is no place to find your soul-mate. Or use the clever positioning of a poster and a small chisel to break your way out of prison. (Hope you’ve read/seen it or I’ve just spoiled the end, soz.)

Enemies of Promise by Cyril Connolly

Assume this is the sort of Marxist nonsense Michael Gove wants us to crack down on?

The Pinch: How the Baby Boomers took their Children’s Future by David Willetts

The less said about this the better… Particularly given the mess poor David’s got himself into with tuition fees.

Gone with the Wind by Margaret Mitchell

Definitely not the sort of message we want. Scarlett replaces paid black workers with unpaid convicts in the Reconstruction Era and gets criticised for “exploiting” them. I think using convicts as free labour is a great idea, as IDS is proving with workfare.

Anything by Katie Price

Most criminals are just in my opinion too stupid to understand her delicate, yet rich use of satire and symbolism. I bloody loved her latest offer, “Love Lipstick and Lies” but these Philistines won’t.

Little Dorrit by Charles Dickens

Sensationalist propaganda about prison and debt being social problems. Also an unfair portrayal of hard-working bureaucrats.

Paddington Bear by Michael Bond

A disgraceful book which encourages the harbouring of illegal immigrants. I hardly think a ‘Please look after this bear’ note constitutes correct paperwork? This Brown family should have texted ‘Go Home’ to report the Peruvian scrounger as soon as he turned up.

Prisonomics by Vicky Pryce

I’m not keen on prisoners reading, let alone writing books. Don’t want that bloody Lib Dem (no offence Simon….) giving them ideas.

The Book Thief by Markus Zusak

Haven’t read it but the title suggests it’ll just be used for cheap satirical digs at the Ministry of Justice.

The Right-Honourable Chris Grayling MP
Member of Parliament for Epsom and Ewell
House of Commons,
London, SW1A 0AA
Tel: 020 7219 8194
Fax: 020 7219 1763

UK Parliament Disclaimer:

This e-mail is confidential to the intended recipient. If you have received it in error, please notify the sender and delete it from your system. Any unauthorised use, disclosure, or copying is not permitted. This e-mail has been checked for viruses, but no liability is accepted for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this e-mail.

—-

From: Simon Hughes <hughess@parliament.uk>
Date: 31st March 15:35
Subject: RE: Books in Prison
To: Grayling, Chris <graylingc@parliament.uk>

Chris,

Thanks for this. Agree wholeheartedly. Will tow the line for sure if any media opportunities arrive. Come to think of it, are there any forthcoming slots that I could step-in and do? Newsnight perhaps?

And can I just confirm that the Bible is still ok? I mean if it’s good enough for people who use Britannia Hotels…?

Si

Simon Hughes MP
Member of Parliament for Bermondsey and Old Southwark
House of Commons,
London, SW1A 0AA
Tel: 020 7219 8194
Fax: 020 7219 1763

UK Parliament Disclaimer:

This e-mail is confidential to the intended recipient. If you have received it in error, please notify the sender and delete it from your system. Any unauthorised use, disclosure, or copying is not permitted. This e-mail has been checked for viruses, but no liability is accepted for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this e-mail.

—–

Grayling and Clegg bravely explain to some convicts why books are bad for them.

From: Grayling, Chris <graylingc@parliament.uk>
Date: 31st March 16:30
Subject: RE: Books in Prison
To: Simon Hughes <hughess@parliament.uk>

Sure yeah the Bible’s fine. We don’t have to pay for them anyway.

In terms of media stuff, let me get back to you.

Come to think of it I don’t think we should just stop with books. Some songs have atrocious messages. Gangsters’ Paradise for instance.

Also, I want to Break free, Jailbreak, Mercy Seat.. there’s loads of undesirable messages in those too.

And obviously anything by Johnny Cash.

Perhaps we should work on a pre-election crack-down?

The Right-Honourable Chris Grayling MP
Member of Parliament for Epsom and Ewell
House of Commons,
London, SW1A 0AA
Tel: 020 7219 8194
Fax: 020 7219 1763

UK Parliament Disclaimer:

This e-mail is confidential to the intended recipient. If you have received it in error, please notify the sender and delete it from your system. Any unauthorised use, disclosure, or copying is not permitted. This e-mail has been checked for viruses, but no liability is accepted for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this e-mail.

———–

From: Simon Hughes <hughess@parliament.uk>
Date: 31st March 16:35
Subject: RE: Books in Prison
To: Grayling, Chris <graylingc@parliament.uk>

Yes Sir!

:)

Simon Hughes MP
Member of Parliament for Bermondsey and Old Southwark
House of Commons,
London, SW1A 0AA
Tel: 020 7219 8194
Fax: 020 7219 1763

UK Parliament Disclaimer:

This e-mail is confidential to the intended recipient. If you have received it in error, please notify the sender and delete it from your system. Any unauthorised use, disclosure, or copying is not permitted. This e-mail has been checked for viruses, but no liability is accepted for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this e-mail.

 

#booksforprisoners

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